How a US Migrant Halt Could Threaten Job Growth — By the Numbers

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The U.S.labor market has experienced a remarkable recovery since the pandemic, butlooming immigration policy changes may put that progress at risk. As politicaldiscussions intensify around limiting migrant inflows, economists warn thathalting migration could severely impact job growth and long-term economicstability. Below, we break down the real numbers behind this warning.

Migrants Have Been Driving Job Growth

Accordingto a recent report by Reuters (June 24, 2025), migrants have accountedfor roughly 75% of U.S. private-sector job gains over the past twoyears. That’s about 180,000 jobs per month, a critical portion ofemployment growth in sectors like hospitality, healthcare, construction, andagriculture.

Withoutcontinued migrant inflows, the monthly payroll growth—currently near 100,000jobs—could decline to under 10,000 jobs per month by late 2026,based on projections by Barclays economists.

Impact on GDP and Economic Expansion

Reducedimmigration doesn’t just shrink the labor pool—it also slows down the economy.

Barclaysestimates that potential U.S. GDP growth could decline from the current ~2%to between 1.4% and 1.6% annually. That’s because fewer working-ageadults translates to lower productivity, reduced consumer demand, and aweakened capacity to expand key industries.

Additionally,the U.S. labor force is expected to shrink by approximately 360,000people in 2025 and 2026 due to declining migration and an aging domesticpopulation.

Demographic Shifts are Already Underway

Accordingto U.S. Census Bureau projections, the national population may declineby 50,000 in 2026 and 100,000 in 2027—a sharp contrast tohistorical growth trends. This demographic downturn is largely attributed tostalled immigration rates, combined with lower birth rates and an agingworkforce.

Theseshifts directly affect sectors that rely on entry-level or labor-intensiveworkers, including farming, eldercare, delivery, food service, and janitorialservices.

Policy Uncertainty Is Amplifying the Impact

Recentenforcement actions—such as ICE raids and policy uncertainty—have alreadydiscouraged migrant labor participation. According to an Associated Pressreport, business owners in states like Georgia and Texas report increasedlabor shortages and operational disruption due to migrant fears and deportationrisks.

Moreover,the Federal Reserve may face challenges in balancing interest ratedecisions. Fewer workers could lead to higher wages, which would keep inflationstubbornly high—even if overall economic growth slows. As of June 2025, sevenFed officials have indicated support for maintaining current interest ratesin light of these labor concerns.

What’s at Stake?

Indicator	Current (With Migration)	Projected (With Halt)
Job Growth (Monthly)	~100,000 – 180,000 jobs	< 10,000 jobs
GDP Growth (Annually)	~2%	1.4% – 1.6%
Labor Force Change	Stable	–360,000 workers (2025–2026)
Migrant Share of Jobs	~75% of private job growth	Nearly 0%

(Source: Reuters,Barclays, U.S. Census Bureau, AP News)

Conclusion: A Costly Halt

Whileimmigration policy remains a contentious topic, the economic data paints aclear picture: halting migrant inflows could have serious consequences for U.S.job creation, GDP growth, and demographic sustainability. For a country thathas long relied on immigration to fuel its economy, reducing that flow couldturn today’s labor shortage into tomorrow’s economic stagnation.

Thechoice facing policymakers isn’t just about borders—it’s about the future shapeof the American workforce and economy.